Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
A weak economy coupled with rising Covid-19 cases and inflation that is above RBI's comfort zone, geopolitical developments, and upcoming India Inc's second quarter results for FY21 could impact sentiment, analysts say.
Kansai Nerolac Paints has seen its market capitalisation (mcap) erode by over 5 per cent since May 3 after posting a subpar performance in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Weighed down by stiff competition, the company has shed Rs 1,172 crore over the past two weeks in mcap. India's largest paint maker in terms of mcap, expects double-digit growth in the industrial segment and aims to maintain margins, but its performance in decorative paints could suffer amid competition.
Any market correction, analysts say, would be an attractive entry point for risky assets, which should do well over the medium-to-long term.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
Trading in the equity market will largely depend on two major events this week - general elections result and the RBI interest rate decision - analysts said, adding that the benchmark indices may rally on Monday on exit polls' prediction of a massive win for the BJP-led NDA and strong GDP data. Exit polls on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the NDA expected to win a big majority in the polls. Counting of votes will take place on June 4.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
The S&P BSE Auto Index has been one of the biggest outperformers among sectoral indices over the past year with returns of 26 per cent. By comparison, the benchmarks - the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex - managed about 6-8 per cent during this period. Improving demand, falling raw material costs, and rising product realisations, led by the premiumisation of portfolios, have led to a revision of growth estimates and upgrades by domestic brokerages.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
After lagging behind other segments in the automotive (auto) space over the past few years, two-wheelers are expected to reverse their volume underperformance. After witnessing a 36.3 per cent volume decline over the 2018-19 (FY19) through 2021-22 (FY22) periods, the sector staged a recovery in 2022-23 (FY23), with volumes rising 17 per cent. While volumes are still a quarter lower than the FY19 peak of 21 million units, a double-digit growth trajectory is expected to prolong.
During the September quarter (Q2FY25), Hindustan Zinc's (HZL's) revenue was reported at Rs 8,300 crore (up 22 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y, and 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q), marginally above consensus. Operating profit stood at Rs 4,100 crore (up 31 per cent Y-o-Y and 5 per cent Q-o-Q), also a small beat. The operating profit margin was 50 per cent, up from 48.5 per cent in Q1FY25.
Given the developments, analysts expect fiscal and monetary support from the government and RBI to revive sentiment. However, recovery, they say, from these levels will be slow and painful.
From its lows this month, the stock of Sona BLW Precision Forgings is up 10 per cent on better-than-expected results. The stock rose by 4 per cent in the trading session on Tuesday after Japan's Nikkei Group said the Indian automotive component major has topped its rankings in terms of competitive advantage. The rankings are based on sales, profit margin, capital expenditure, research and development, and market capitalisation.
Whether it's Carrefour, Ford, or other foreign majors, they are ready to adjust their strategies and design their plans in a way that would address the Indian consumption story.
There is no near-term respite for the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods maker, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), which is facing multiple challenges on the growth front. With demand showing no signs of improvement, especially in the rural segment, the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 (FY24) is likely to be similar to the previous quarter, with volume growth in the low single digits. The stock, which is down 7 per cent over the past year compared to the 11 per cent jump for the S&P BSE Sensex, could underperform the benchmark in the near term as well.
The rupee slipped 13 paise to 77.67 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by the surge in crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 77.65 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 77.67, registering a fall of 13 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee settled at 77.54 against the US dollar.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
These 10 stocks represent the best mix of value and growth, offering relatively low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, a high return on equity, and sufficiently high potential from current levels.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
IPOs inherently carry more risks than stocks that have been listed on the exchanges for some time.
Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India and HCL Technologies were the biggest gainers. On the contrary, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, NTPC and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Stock markets are likely to remain range-bound in this holiday-shortened week amid a lack of any major domestic triggers, analysts said. Stock indices may also face volatility during the week amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Christmas.
rediffGURU Patrick DSouza trains students for competitive management entrance exams such as the Common Admission Test, the Xavier Aptitude Test, Common Management Admission Test and the Common Entrance Test.
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
It was a year ago that Nielsen had suspended services to the analyst community following an uproar by companies over inaccurate reporting of market share data.
India's financial sector is dominated by large government-owned and private-sector banks.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
Most lenders that have reported their April-June business update posted slower growth in deposits sequentially as compared to the loan growth in the April-June quarter of 2024-25 (FY25). Current and savings account (CASA) deposits continue to face pressure. Private-sector lenders YES Bank, Bandhan Bank, and RBL Bank saw their deposit growth contract by 0.5 per cent, 1.5 per cent, and 2 per cent, respectively.
From the Sensex firms, Power Grid, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Maruti were among the laggards. Asian Paints, Wipro, JSW Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the biggest gainers.
The reason? Price of open cell panels has gone up 15%. One of the main components in the manufacturing of TV sets, open cells contribute to 60%-65% of the manufacturing cost.
Mumbai-based developers Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Oberoi Realty have emerged as top gainers among largecap realty stocks over the past month, with gains ranging from 29 per cent to 33 per cent. Strong ongoing sales trends in Mumbai's core market, record bookings in the January-March quarter, and healthy guidance for 2024-25 (FY25) have propelled these companies, which derive the majority of their revenues from India's financial capital.
The stock of footwear major Bata India has been the highest gainer among larger listed footwear companies since the start of the month on expectations of a recovery in the value segment, new launches and measures by the new government to boost consumption. The third largest footwear maker by market capitalisation has been trailing its peers over the past few quarters due to the slowdown in the mass segment market which accounts for a significant chunk of its revenues.
Companies in the banking, finance sector and insurance (BFSI) sector have underperformed on the bourses despite leading the earnings growth charts in the post-pandemic period. This has created a dichotomy between their earnings and share prices. BFSI companies have never been less expensive than the rest of the equity market.
The Nifty 50 index is poised for a revamp as the revised futures and options (F&O) stock selection criteria is seen paving the way for newly listed companies to join the benchmark index, which is tracked by passive funds with combined assets under management of more than ~3.5 trillion ($44 billion). For the first time in six years, the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has tweaked the stock selection process for the derivatives segment that clocks a turnover of ~400 trillion daily.
The Indian equity markets will soon account for over a fifth of a key emerging market (EM) benchmark tracked by funds with assets exceeding $500 billion. This development is expected to funnel as much as $3 billion into the domestic markets. Following the latest review undertaken by global index provider MSCI, India's weighting in the MSCI EM index will surpass 20 per cent for the first time, narrowing its gap with the current top-weighted China to fewer than 400 basis points.
